Paul Skenes Tries to Dodge Three‑Game Slide vs Cubs Thursday

Paul Skenes will start for the Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday night in Chicago, hoping to sidestep the first three‑game losing streak of his major‑league career. The 2024 NL Cy Young winner enters with a 5.23 ERA after back‑to‑back starts that produced five earned runs in Philadelphia and nine hits in Toronto. According to ESPN, the Cubs boast a left‑handed heavy lineup that could test Skenes’ platoon splits.

For a pitcher of Skenes’ pedigree—a former first-overall pick who entered the league with the most hype since Stephen Strasburg—this slump is more than just a statistical dip; it is a psychological crossroads. Fans at PNC Park expect a return to the dominance that earned him the award, yet the urgency of avoiding a historic skid adds pressure. If he succeeds, the Pirates stay within striking distance of a .500 record; a loss would push them deeper into the cellar and raise questions about whether the league has finally caught up to his high-velocity arsenal.

Recent outings shape Skenes’ current situation

In his last two starts, Skenes surrendered five earned runs on five innings to the Phillies on May 17, then gave up four runs on five innings while allowing a career‑high nine hits to the Blue Jays on May 20. Those outings marked the first time he allowed three or more earned runs in consecutive starts, a blemish on an otherwise stellar sophomore transition. The Phillies start was particularly telling, as Philadelphia’s disciplined approach forced Skenes deep into counts, exposing a rare lack of efficiency that left him vulnerable in the fourth and fifth innings.

The subsequent outing against Toronto was a different kind of struggle. While the Phillies beat him with patience, the Blue Jays beat him with contact. The nine hits allowed were not just a volume issue, but a quality issue; several hard-hit balls found holes in the defense, suggesting that the “unhittable” aura surrounding Skenes has dimmed. This trend mirrors the classic “sophomore slump” where opposing scouts have collected enough video and data to identify patterns in his delivery and pitch sequencing, moving away from the shock-and-awe strategy that defined his debut year.

Numbers reveal a shift from his Cy Young campaign

During his award‑winning 2025 season, Skenes posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 4.2 WAR, ranking third among NL starters. He dominated the league by blending a triple-digit fastball with a devastating changeup that kept hitters off-balance. However, the 2026 metrics suggest a regression. This year his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) has risen to 4.10, suggesting underlying luck may be eroding his effectiveness. When FIP significantly exceeds ERA, it often indicates a pitcher is benefiting from great defense; however, Skenes’ rising FIP combined with a rising ERA suggests a fundamental decline in his ability to prevent baserunners and limit damage.

The most alarming metric is the spin rate. Skenes’ spin rate has slipped from a career‑high 2,800 rpm to roughly 2,600 rpm, correlating with a higher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) against him. In professional pitching, a drop in spin often results in “flatter” fastballs that do not rise as much, making them easier for hitters to drive. This loss of vertical movement has turned what were previously pop-ups into line drives, explaining why the Blue Jays were able to pepper his defense with hits.

The strikeout rate has dipped to 6.5 K/9, down from 9.2 K/9 in 2025, while his walk rate has crept up to 3.2 BB/9. This shift indicates a struggle with command—Skenes is no longer painting the corners with surgical precision, and hitters are no longer terrified of his heat. His WHIP now sits at 1.38, a modest rise that suggests more baserunners are finding their way to the plate. Yet his ground‑ball percentage remains near 48%, indicating that when his command is on point, he still induces weak contact. If he can rediscover his ability to tunnel his fastball and cutter, he can return to the elite tier of the NL.

Strategic battle: Skenes vs. the Cubs’ Lefties

The matchup at Wrigley Field presents a tactical puzzle. Chicago’s current construction focuses on high-OBP left-handed hitters who excel at taking pitches and working the count. Skenes’ platoon splits show a .210 average against lefties versus .260 versus righties this season. On paper, this favors Skenes, but the Cubs’ ability to force a pitcher into the zone can be dangerous. If the Cubs can drive up his pitch count early, they can force the Pirates to turn to a struggling bullpen prematurely.

Pittsburgh’s coaching staff, led by their pitching rotation management, has attempted to mitigate this by adjusting his pitch mix. He has been utilizing his slider more frequently to keep lefties honest, but the primary weapon remains the cutter. The battle will be whether the Cubs can lay off the cutter on the outer half or if Skenes can use it to freeze the Chicago lineup.

Key Developments

Skenes’ pitch count entered Thursday’s game at 115, just ten pitches shy of the 125‑pitch threshold that would trigger a bullpen call‑up. This strict limit reflects the organization’s desire to protect their most valuable asset from overuse. The Pirates placed him on a two‑day rest schedule to preserve his arm after the recent back‑to‑back outings. This non-traditional rest period is a gamble aimed at refreshing his arm strength, though it risks disrupting his rhythm. Chicago’s lineup features a left‑handed heavy order, and Skenes’ platoon splits show a .210 average against lefties versus .260 versus righties this season. Pittsburgh‑s bullpen ERA sits at 4.55, the highest in the NL Central, meaning any early exit could force relievers into high‑leverage situations. This creates a “must-go-deep” scenario for Skenes, as the bridge to the ninth inning is currently precarious. The game will be televised on ESPN2, offering national exposure for Skenes as he attempts to re‑establish his elite status in front of a national audience.

What does this start mean for the Pirates’ playoff outlook?

The implications of Thursday’s game extend far beyond a single win-loss column. Winning Thursday would keep Pittsburgh within five games of the NL Central lead, a realistic gap given the division’s current volatility. The NL Central has been a chaotic race, and the Pirates have remained competitive primarily because of their starting pitching. A loss would widen the deficit to eight, making a wild‑card push more arduous and potentially demoralizing for a young squad.

The front office brass has signaled that Skenes remains the ace of the rotation, and a strong performance could cement his role as the franchise’s cornerstone beyond his current contract. In the broader context of the Pirates’ rebuild, Skenes is the catalyst. If he can stabilize his performance, the team has a legitimate chance to compete. If he continues to struggle, the organization may have to accelerate other acquisitions to fill the void in the rotation.

Paul Skenes has become the focal point of Pittsburgh’s rebuilding narrative. If the Pirates can trust his arm for a full six innings, the bullpen‑s inflated ERA could be mitigated, and the team would stay within striking distance of the postseason. The pressure is immense, but for a player who has thrived on the biggest stages from college to the pros, this is the moment where he proves his resilience.