Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani entered the June 28, 2026 season as a dual‑threat contender, but a new projection warns his MLB Cy Young Race could end by mid‑summer. The forecast, reported on May 27, predicts his ERA will climb above 2.00 in June and July, while his projected innings drop well below other NL front‑runners.
Ohtani remains the frontrunner for the NL MVP award, yet the same statistical profile that fuels his MVP case also raises questions about his Cy Young viability. The Dodgers’ ace‑like numbers are impressive, but the expected workload dip may leave him trailing candidates who log full starter innings.
What does recent history say about two‑way players in the Cy Young conversation?
Historically, the award has favored pure pitchers who exceed 180 innings and maintain sub‑3.00 ERAs. Ohtani’s 2022 and 2023 seasons showed flashes of dominance on the mound, yet his innings totals hovered around 100, far short of the traditional threshold. The Sporting News analysis notes that a reduced innings count is a major hurdle for any Cy Young hopeful.
Key details from the new projection
The forecast outlines three critical points: Ohtani’s ERA is expected to rise above the 2.00 mark during June–July, his total innings could fall to roughly 85 by the end of July, and the dip would likely remove him from serious Cy Young contention. While his offensive contributions keep him in the MVP mix, the pitching side may no longer meet the award’s endurance standards. The article also stresses that a lower innings count, combined with a higher ERA, weakens his statistical résumé compared with NL rivals like Max Fried and Walker Buehler.
Key developments
- Projected ERA increase to 2.12 in June, up from a season‑low 1.85
- Expected innings tally to drop to 85 by July 31, well under the 150‑plus innings typical of Cy Young leaders
- Analysts cite Ohtani’s split‑role usage—four starts and six relief outings per month—as a factor in the innings decline
- Dodgers’ front office reportedly plans to limit Ohtani’s starts to protect his arm for the postseason, further impacting his Cy Young odds
- Despite the pitching dip, Ohtani still projects a WAR above 8.0, keeping him atop the MVP ballot
Impact and what’s next for the race
The projection forces fans and fantasy managers to reassess Ohtani’s value on the mound. If his ERA climbs and innings fall as predicted, the award narrative will shift toward traditional starters who can sustain volume and quality. Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts may adjust Ohtani’s role, emphasizing his bat in the lineup while preserving his arm for a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, NL pitchers such as Max Fried, who is on a 150‑inning pace with a 2.31 ERA, stand to gain ground in the MLB Cy Young Race. The evolving picture underscores how a two‑way star can dominate headlines yet still be edged out by pure pitchers when durability becomes the decisive metric.
What innings total is required to qualify for the Cy Young Award?
Voters typically look for at least 150 innings pitched, a benchmark that reflects durability and sustained performance over a full season. Ohtani’s projected 85 innings fall far short of that standard (general MLB criteria).
Who are the current leaders in the NL Cy Young race?
As of late May, Max Fried (Atlanta Braves) and Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers) top the NL leaderboard with ERAs under 2.40 and innings totals exceeding 130, according to league statistics.
Has any two‑way player ever won the Cy Young Award?
No two‑way player has captured the Cy Young. The award’s history is dominated by pure pitchers, with the closest attempt being Ohtani’s 2022 season, where he fell short on innings despite a sub‑2.00 ERA.