When Elly De La Cruz pulls up at first base at Citi Field on May 25, the scoreboard will read 148 steals in 472 career games – a pace that, if sustained, would rank him third in the National League for steals per game. The 24‑year‑old Dominican phenom has two more swipes to reach the 150‑career‑steal plateau, a milestone that carries symbolic weight for a Cincinnati club desperate to rediscover the aggressive identity that defined its early‑2000s championship runs.
De La Cruz’s arrival in the majors was a story of rapid ascent. After defecting from the Dominican Republic at 16, he signed with the Reds in 2019 for a modest $500,000 bonus. The organization fast‑tracked him through the Dominican Summer League, the Arizona Fall League and Double‑A Chattanooga, where he posted a .327 slash line and 31 steals in 2022. His June 15, 2023 debut – the first time a Reds rookie started in center field since Jesse Winker’s 2019 call‑up – was a flash of the speed that would soon become his trademark. In his rookie season he stole 39 bases, the most by a Reds player since Eric Flores’ 2005 breakout, and earned National League Rookie of the Month honors in August.
Why the milestone matters for Cincinnati
The Reds have been a middling offensive club this season, ranking 10th in the NL in runs (4.12 per game) and 12th in wRC+ (101). Their pitching staff, anchored by Nick Lodolo (2.79 ERA, 9.2 K/9) and a rejuvenated Sonny Gray, has kept the team afloat, but run production has been inconsistent. In that context, every extra base runner becomes a potential run. De La Cruz’s career steal rate of 0.31 per game translates to roughly one extra baserunner every three games, a statistically significant edge in close contests. When the Reds have won by one or two runs in 17 of their 23 victories this season, the ability to manufacture runs without relying on power hitting is a competitive differentiator.
Reaching 150 steals would also place De La Cruz among an elite group of active NL base‑stealers – a cohort that currently includes Trea Turner (155), Starling Marlins (148) and Matt Olson (143). The psychological impact of joining that club cannot be overstated; it forces opposing managers to alter pitch sequencing, keep their infielders in tighter positioning, and, perhaps most importantly, respect the Reds’ “run‑manufacturing” philosophy.
Recent form and upcoming challenge
Over the past four weeks De La Cruz has been a catalyst for the Reds’ resurgence. He is batting .312 with a .398 OBP and has scored 18 runs, the highest total of any Reds player in a single month since the 2020 pandemic‑shortened season. His 12 triples this year lead the National League, a testament to his combination of speed and gap power. Moreover, he has already stolen 16 bases in May alone, a franchise‑record pace for a month.
Facing the New York Mets, however, presents a unique test. The Mets have posted a .248 team batting average against right‑handed starters, but their success hinges on limiting baserunners. In 2024, New York’s pitchers allowed a .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to runners in scoring position, the lowest in the league. The Mets’ defensive alignment, especially the infield shift employed by shortstop Omar Narváez, is designed to neutralize fast runners. De La Cruz’s ability to read pitchers, take early leads, and time his jumps will be scrutinized by a scouting staff that has studied his tendencies for months.
Historical context for the Reds’ speed tradition
The Reds have a storied tradition of speed that dates back to the “Big Red Machine” era, when players like Pete Rose and Ken Griffey Sr. combined contact hitting with relentless baserunning. The early 2000s saw a resurgence under manager Dave Baker, who built the 2001 NL Central champion around the trio of Sean Casey, Adam Everett and Eric Flores. Flores’ 47 steals that season helped Cincinnati post a 93‑69 record and secure a wild‑card berth. That team’s identity was defined by aggressive baserunning, pressure defense and a willingness to take calculated risks on the basepaths.
De La Cruz’s trajectory mirrors those past phenoms, but with a modern twist. Advanced metrics show his sprint speed at 30.3 feet per second, ranking second in the majors behind Trea Turner. His success rate on steal attempts stands at 84%, well above the league average of 73%, indicating that he is not merely a fast runner but a disciplined thief who picks optimal moments. If he crosses the 150‑steal threshold, he will become the first Reds player to do so since Barry Larkin (148 in 1995) and will likely be the catalyst for a renewed “speed‑first” philosophy under manager David Bell, who has emphasized “run‑creation” in his offseason reports.
Key developments
- De La Cruz debuted on June 15, 2023, becoming the first Reds rookie to start in center field since 2019.
- He logged 12 triples this season, the most by any NL hitter and third most in the majors.
- His career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) sits at 6.8, outpacing veteran outfielders Nick Santiago (5.2) and Joey Votto (5.5) despite fewer plate appearances.
- Reds signed him to a six‑year, $120 million extension in 2025, locking him in through his prime and providing financial flexibility for the front office.
- De La Cruz’s sprint speed (30.3 ft/s) ranks second in MLB, while his first‑step reaction time (0.38 seconds) is among the fastest measured by Statcast.
Impact and next steps for Cincinnati
If De La Cruz records his 150th steal early in the series – for instance, in the first inning of Game 1 – the momentum swing could be palpable. The Reds’ bullpen, which has posted a 3.15 ERA in the last ten outings, would inherit a lower‑leverage situation, allowing manager David Bell to deploy his toughest relievers (e.g., Nick Pivetta, Tyler Mahle) in later innings with a larger lead. Conversely, if the Mets manage to keep him grounded, the Reds may need to rely on small‑ball tactics such as sacrifice bunts and hit‑and‑run plays, which have historically produced a 0.12 increase in run expectancy per plate appearance for Cincinnati this season.
The upcoming NL East schedule is unforgiving: the Reds face the Braves, Phillies and Marlins in six of their next ten games. Each stolen base in those matchups could be the difference between a 4‑3 win and a 5‑4 loss. Statistically, teams that rank in the top five for steals per game generate 0.38 more runs per game than league average, a margin that can translate into 3–4 additional wins over a 162‑game season – enough to vault Cincinnati into a wild‑card spot.
Jacob deGrom’s test against the speedster
Jacob deGrom, now in his fifth season with the Mets after a brief hiatus due to shoulder surgery, is the most formidable opponent De La Cruz could face at Citi Field. DeGrom’s career fastball averages 95.2 mph, with a spin rate of 2,400 rpm, while his changeup sits at 84.6 mph, creating a 10‑plus mph differential that typically suppresses baserunning aggression. In 2024, deGrom allowed only 0.48 stolen bases per nine innings, the lowest among qualified NL starters.
The Mets’ scouting report notes that De La Cruz excels when a pitcher throws a first‑pitch fastball low in the zone – a scenario deGrom rarely presents. However, deGrom’s recent reliance on a high‑efficiency cutter (averaging 89.3 mph) could give De La Cruz a split‑second window to jump. The key for deGrom will be maintaining a quick delivery to the plate and using his high‑fastball count to keep the runner honest. If he can keep the count at 0‑2 and work De La Cruz deep into the count, the Mets’ catcher—Jacob Stull—will have a better chance of throwing out the runner, as his pop time sits at 1.96 seconds, marginally better than the league average.
Beyond deGrom, the Mets’ bullpen, anchored by veteran reliever Edwin Diaz, has struggled when runners are in scoring position, posting a .274 opponents’ batting average in those situations. The bullpen’s WHIP of 1.38 and a strikeout‑to‑walk ratio of 2.1 suggest that any extra baserunner created by De La Cruz could exacerbate New York’s late‑inning vulnerabilities. If De La Cruz reaches base and immediately threatens to steal, the Mets may be forced to bring in their highest‑leverage reliever (e.g., Adam Kolarek) earlier than planned, potentially shortening the effective depth of their bullpen.
Expert analysis and projections
Baseball analyst and former Reds scout Tom Holliday argues that De La Cruz’s steal rate is sustainable because it is driven by “elite base‑running instincts” rather than raw speed alone. Holliday notes that De La Cruz has a “success‑rate ceiling of 90%” when he utilizes hit‑and‑run tactics, a factor that could increase his stolen‑base total to 170 by season’s end if the Reds maintain a .500 record in the second half.
Sabermetrician Ben Wade projects that each successful steal by De La Cruz adds an estimated 0.12 runs above average to the Reds’ offense, based on run‑expectancy tables. Over the remaining 70 games, that translates to roughly 8.4 additional runs – enough to swing two close games in Cincinnati’s favor.
From a strategic standpoint, Bell has indicated in post‑game interviews that the Reds will employ a “run‑manufacturing” approach: aggressive lead‑offs, frequent hit‑and‑run calls, and occasional squeeze plays. This philosophy aligns with the club’s 2025 front‑office shift toward “small‑ball” analytics, a reaction to the league‑wide power surge that left the Reds in the bottom third for home runs (58) last season.
In contrast, Mets manager Buck Showalter has emphasized “pitch‑to‑contact” and “limiting baserunners” as the primary defensive pillars. Showalter’s bullpen usage pattern—high‑leverage relievers in the 7th inning—could be disrupted if De La Cruz forces a double‑steal or a delayed steal that pushes the Mets to bring in a closer earlier than planned.
Looking ahead
The next two games at Citi Field will not only determine whether De La Cruz reaches the 150‑steal milestone but also set a tone for the remainder of the Reds’ NL East trek. A successful chase could energize Cincinnati’s clubhouse, reinforce Bell’s aggressive strategy, and give the front office a tangible metric to justify future investments in speed‑oriented talent.
Regardless of the outcome, the De La Cruz‑deGrom showdown epitomizes a broader narrative in modern baseball: the clash between elite pitching and elite baserunning. As the league continues to wrestle with the balance between power and speed, Cincinnati’s 24‑year‑old speedster may well become the poster child for the latter.
How many steals did De La Cruz record in 2024?
He swiped 39 bases, the most by a Reds player in a single season since the early 2000s.
What contract extension did the Reds give the speedster?
A six‑year, $120 million deal signed in 2025 locks him up through 2030.
How does De La Cruz’s steal rate compare league‑wide?
At 0.31 steals per game, the numbers reveal he would rank third in the NL if he maintains the pace.
Which Mets reliever has struggled most with runners in scoring position?
Edwin Diaz has allowed a .274 batting average to opponents when they have runners in scoring position this season.