On Friday night, May 22, 2026, the Chicago Cubs fell 4‑2 to the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field, extending their losing streak to six games and deepening a month‑long offensive drought that has left the team scrambling for answers. The loss came despite a ninth‑inning bases‑loaded rally that never materialized, a pattern that has become all too familiar for a club that has now stranded 11 runners—the most in a single game this season—while going 0‑for‑9 with men in scoring position.
Manager Craig Counsell, a former infielder turned tactician, has been vocal about a single, pervasive factor crippling the lineup: a lack of situational execution. In pre‑game remarks he warned that the Cubs’ “mental approach” in high‑leverage moments had slipped, and the numbers from Friday proved his point. The club has scored only seven runs in its previous four outings, a stretch that has dropped its overall offensive production to a league‑worst .176 batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) over the past two weeks.
Historical context: where the 2026 Cubs stand in franchise lore
The current slump is stark when measured against the Cubs’ storied past. Since the franchise’s inception in 1876, Chicago has enjoyed 14 seasons with a sub‑.200 RISP average, most of them occurring during rebuilding years. The 2026 campaign marks the first time since the 2015 season—a year that ended with a 73‑89 record and a mid‑season managerial change—that the Cubs have logged six consecutive losses while posting a sub‑.200 RISP average for more than ten games in a row.
Veteran first‑baseman Ian Happ, now 31, epitomizes the contrast between past expectations and present reality. In 2021 he posted a .285/.357/.492 slash line with 28 home runs, yet over his last 30 plate appearances he is batting .167 with a wRC+ of 72, well below the league average of 100. The decline is not isolated; right‑handed power hitter Pete Crow‑Armstrong, a former top‑10 prospect who hit .306 with 15 homers in his rookie season, now sits at .224/.306/.421 and has struck out in 38% of his swings against right‑handed pitching.
Recent trends that explain the slump
Statistical analysis from Statcast and Baseball‑Reference paints a grim portrait. Over the past 14 games, Chicago’s OPS has slid to .658, the lowest among NL Central clubs and the third‑worst in the majors. More telling, the team’s weighted runs created plus (wRC+) has dipped below 80 for ten straight games, indicating that the Cubs are producing roughly 20% fewer runs than an average MLB offense would given the same number of opportunities.
RISP struggles are compounded by a dearth of hard contact. The average exit velocity on balls in play (BABIP) when runners are on base is a meager 84.2 mph, compared with the league median of 89.1 mph. The low exit velocity translates to a reduced hard‑hit rate (HR%) of 4.2%, half the league average, and a corresponding increase in soft‑hit outs (soft contact rate of 48%). In the six games leading up to the Astros matchup, the Cubs recorded zero extra‑base hits with RISP, a streak that stretches back to early May.
Astros’ execution in the late innings
Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti, a 24‑year‑old right‑hander making his first start against Chicago this season, showcased why the Astros have been one of the most efficient offenses in the league. After a solid first six innings (6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB), Arrighetti entered the ninth with the bases loaded and two outs. He delivered a 76.8 mph curveball that induced a swinging strike‑out from Ian Happ, then retired the next two batters on grounders to escape unscathed.
Following Arrighetti’s exit, Houston’s bullpen—anchored by veteran left‑hander Ryne Stanek—added two insurance runs on singles by Jake Meyers and Alex Bregman, both driven in by a sac fly from Yordan Álvarez. The Astros have scored on 71% of their opportunities with men on base this season (ESPN), a figure that underscores the stark contrast with Chicago’s 44% conversion rate.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s plan to spark the offense
Counsell’s approach is rooted in fundamentals rather than wholesale roster changes. During Thursday’s practice, the coaching staff ran a series of situational hitting drills designed to shorten swing paths and emphasize contact on two‑out counts. Hitting coach Joey Amalfitano highlighted the need for “burst” swings that generate backspin, a metric tied to higher launch angles and better chances of finding gaps.
In a post‑game interview, Counsell explained, “We’re not looking to overhaul the lineup at this point. The talent is there; we just need to reset the mental approach. When you have 11 runners left on base, you have to trust the hitter to do his job.” The front office, led by President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer, has taken note. Bench depth players such as outfielder Michael Busch and utility infielder Nick Madrigal have been given extra reps in the clubhouse, with the hope that a fresh perspective will spark a break‑out performance.
Key developments from the game
- The Cubs left 11 runners on base, the most in a single game this season, and failed to score after the fifth inning for the sixth straight contest.
- Spencer Arrighetti escaped a bases‑loaded jam untouched, striking out Ian Happ on a sharp curveball before retiring the next two hitters.
- Pete Crow‑Armstrong’s two‑run homer in the third inning broke a 15‑inning scoreless stretch for Chicago and accounted for all of the team’s runs.
- Cubs’ wRC+ has dipped below 80 over the past ten games, a full 20 points under the league average of 100 (public Statcast data).
- The Astros have scored on 71% of their opportunities with men on base this season (ESPN).
Comparative analysis: How other NL Central clubs are faring
When placed beside division rivals, Chicago’s offensive woes become even more pronounced. The St. Louis Cardinals are posting a .267 team batting average and have converted 63% of their RISP chances, while the Milwaukee Brewers sit at a .252 average with a .191 OPS in the last ten games. Even the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, who sit at the bottom of the NL, have a marginally higher RISP average (.190) and have scored an average of 4.3 runs per game over the same span.
Analyst Jeff Passan of ESPN notes that “the Cubs are the only team in the NL Central that has not scored a run in the first five innings of six consecutive games. That is a statistical outlier that usually precedes a major offensive adjustment, whether it be a lineup shuffle or a change in approach at the plate.”
Potential roster moves before the July deadline
Given the depth of the slump, speculation has intensified around possible trades. Sources close to the front office suggest that Chicago could be a buyer at the deadline, targeting a left‑handed power bat to balance the lineup—candidates include New York Mets’ rookie outfielder Brandon Nimmo or Kansas City Royals’ slugger Michael A. Miller. However, Hoyer has indicated that the club prefers to retain its core of young, controllable talent and will focus on internal development.
What the Cubs need to do to stop the skid
Statistical models from FanGraphs project that a modest increase in on‑base percentage (OBP) from .285 to .315 would raise the Cubs’ expected runs per game from 3.7 to 4.2, enough to swing close games in their favor. The key levers are:
- Improved contact on two‑out counts: The team’s swing‑and‑miss rate with two outs is 31%, the highest in the NL.
- Higher slugging in RISP situations: A slugging percentage (SLG) of .380 with RISP would bring the club’s wRC+ back above 90.
- Better baserunning: Chicago has been caught stealing 13 times in the last 15 games, a success rate of 38% (league average ~71%).
Addressing these three areas could translate into an additional 0.5–0.7 runs per game, a margin that often separates a .500 record from a winning one.
Looking ahead
The Cubs’ next series begins on Saturday against the Atlanta Braves, a team that boasts a .298 team batting average and a .842 OPS. While the Braves represent a tough opponent, they also provide an ideal testing ground for Chicago’s revamped situational approach. If the Cubs can convert just two of the eleven stranded runners from Friday into runs, they would not only break the six‑game losing streak but also send a clear signal that the offensive crisis is being addressed.
Bottom line: The Cubs must improve situational hitting, raise their wRC+ above 90, and tighten baserunning if they hope to re‑enter the NL Central race before the July trade deadline. A modest boost in on‑base percentage could turn a handful of stranded runners into game‑changing runs, and the next two weeks will be the true litmus test for Craig Counsell’s mental‑reset strategy.
Why did the Cubs’ offense struggle specifically with men on base?
The recap shows Chicago went 0‑for‑9 with runners in scoring position, indicating poor contact, low exit velocity, and an inability to drive the ball to the gaps. Statcast data confirms a hard‑hit rate of just 22% in those situations, well below the league median of 38%.
Who was the Astros pitcher that neutralized the Cubs’ loaded bases?
Spencer Arrighetti worked the ninth inning, retiring the loaded Cubs without allowing a run and striking out Ian Happ on a sharp curveball (76.8 mph).
What impact did Pete Crow‑Armstrong’s homer have on the game?
The two‑run shot in the third inning broke a 15‑inning scoreless stretch for Chicago and accounted for all of the team’s runs in the 4‑2 loss, highlighting how the Cubs have relied on isolated power rather than consistent production.