Gerrit Cole took the mound on May 24 against the Tampa Bay Rays, instantly reviving talk of the MLB Comeback Player of the Year race. The former Cy Young winner, fresh from a 22‑month Tommy John layoff, logged six strikeouts over five innings, reminding fans why he once dominated the league.
At just over two months into the season, bookmakers have set his run total at 4.5 on DraftKings, a line that reflects both his pedigree and lingering uncertainty, according to FOX Sports. The numbers reveal a pitcher who can still command a strikeout‑heavy arsenal.
What Cole’s return means for the award race
His debut placed him ahead of other hopefuls such as Jose Ramirez, who is nursing a shoulder strain, and Shohei Ohtani, whose schedule remains compressed. Analysts predict that maintaining a sub‑3.00 ERA could swing the voting in his favor.
Background: Two‑year hiatus and rehab grind
Before his surgery, Cole amassed a 3.41 career ERA and over 3,000 strikeouts, regularly ranking in the top five for pitcher WAR. The lengthy rehab included bullpen work before he reclaimed a rotation spot.
Key metrics from the comeback start
Statcast recorded fastballs touching 94 mph with a 2,400 rpm spin rate—about 5% lower than his 2024 average but still in the top 10% of active arms. Advanced numbers showed a 2.85 FIP and a 10.2 K/9, both comfortably above league averages. The pitcher admitted, “I feel like I’m back, just a little bit rusty,” while his coach praised the arm’s regained command.
Impact on the Yankees and what lies ahead
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone said the team’s postseason hopes have been bolstered by Cole’s return, and the front office may consider an early contract extension to lock in his value before free agency. If the ace sustains his trajectory, he could become the front‑runner for the award while giving the club a legitimate ace for a playoff push. Conversely, a mid‑season slump would open the door for younger arms like Luis Gil, who are already making an impact in the AL East.
Key Developments
- DraftKings set Cole’s season run total at 4.5, indicating high expectations for a rapid rebound.
- The former ace missed 22 months due to Tommy John surgery, the longest absence for a recent Cy Young winner.
- His fastball spin rate of 2,400 rpm ranks in the top 10% of active pitchers despite a slight dip.
- Cole’s career WAR now stands at 58.7, placing him third among active pitchers.
- FOX Sports projects a 65% chance he will finish the season with an ERA under 3.00.
What are the eligibility rules for the award?
Players must have missed at least half of the previous season due to injury, illness, or personal reasons and then return to perform at a high level. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) votes on the honor.
How many pitchers have won the award since its inception?
Only three pitchers have captured the accolade since 2005, underscoring the rarity of a successful pitching comeback.
What was the timeline of Cole’s surgery and recovery?
He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2025, completed a 12‑month rehab program, and returned to game action in May 2026.