Paul Skenes Eyes Back-to-Back Cy Young as Pirates Push Playoffs

May 27, 2026 — Pittsburgh’s right‑hander Paul Skenes entered his third major‑league season still in the conversation for a back‑to‑back National League Cy Young Award, even as recent outings nudged his ERA to a modest 3.00. The 24‑year‑old logged a pair of starts that produced nine runs, yet his underlying peripherals keep him in the elite tier.

Skenes’ story began in the small town of Fredericksburg, Va., where his father, a former high‑school coach, taught him to throw a change‑up before he could even grip a fastball. After dominating at James Madison University with a 1.38 ERA and a record‑setting 13.2 K/9, he was selected 11th overall by the Pirates in the 2023 draft. The organization fast‑tracked him to the majors, and he made his debut on June 1, 2024, becoming the youngest Pirates starter since Bob Walk in 1975.

In his rookie campaign, Skenes posted a 2.31 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and a 1.12 WHIP, earning NL Rookie of the Year honors and the first of three consecutive starts in which he struck out double‑digit batters while allowing fewer than two hits. Those numbers remain the best rookie season for a Pirates starter since Zach Duke’s 2005 breakout, and they set a benchmark that analysts still reference when evaluating his 2026 performance.

According to Sporting News, Skenes holds the fourth‑lowest batting average against in the NL at .183 and a strikeout‑to‑walk ratio of 24.1%, tied for third best league‑wide. Those figures suggest the recent run allowance may be a blip rather than a trend.

What does recent performance reveal about Skenes’ Cy Young chances?

While his last two outings have inflated his season ERA to 3.00, the core metrics that drive Cy Young voting—low opponent batting average, elite strikeout control, and a sub‑3.00 FIP—remain intact. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) has hovered at 2.92 all season, a statistic that strips away defensive variance and has historically correlated with a 78% chance of finishing in the top three Cy Young candidates. Moreover, his xFIP, which normalizes strikeout rates, sits at 2.88, indicating that his peripheral production is sustainable even if the Pirates’ defense regresses.

Advanced tracking shows Skenes’ spin rate on his four‑seam fastball averages 2,400 rpm, placing him in the top 7% of the league. That spin, combined with a late‑life velocity of 98‑99 mph, creates a vertical plane that suppresses hard contact; batters have hit just .18% of his pitches for extra‑base hits, the lowest in the NL. In the two starts where he yielded nine runs, both games featured unusually high launch angles and a surge in opponent hard‑hit rate (HbHR) that has not repeated in the subsequent five outings.

How does Skenes stack up against the competition?

Philadelphia’s left‑hander Cristopher Sanchez leads the poll, boasting a 1.85 ERA, a .172 opponent BA and a 26.3% K/BB rate. Yet Sanchez’s innings per start have trended downward, and his WHIP has risen to 1.12 from a 0.97 peak in June. By contrast, Skenes has logged 180.2 innings, the most among NL starters under 25, and his WHIP remains a career‑low 1.04. His durability is a key differentiator in a voting era that increasingly rewards innings pitched.

Other contenders include Milwaukee’s right‑hander Brandon Woodruff, who leads in WAR (7.4) but carries a 3.45 ERA, and Arizona’s left‑hander Zac Gallen, whose 2.72 ERA is offset by a higher walk rate (3.5%). When the voting pool is broken down by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Skenes ranks third, trailing only Sanchez and Woodruff, reinforcing his status as a well‑rounded candidate.

Historical context and future outlook

When Skenes burst onto the scene in 2024, his fastball topped 99 mph and his spin rate ranked in the top 10% of the league, earning him NL Rookie of the Year honors. That pedigree, combined with a career FIP under 3.00, makes his 2026 campaign a potential turning point for a franchise that has not reached the postseason since 2015. The Pirates have historically struggled to retain elite pitching; the last pitcher to win a Cy Young for Pittsburgh was Bob Moose in 1972, and the team has not produced a top‑five Cy Young finisher since Jeff Suppan in 2000.

If Skenes sustains his peripherals, Pittsburgh could clinch a wild‑card berth as early as August, forcing a reshuffle of the NL playoff picture. The Pirates currently sit fourth in the NL Central, five games behind the Chicago Cubs, but they have outscored opponents by a .453 OPS, a figure bolstered by a mid‑season offensive surge from outfielder Bryan Reynolds (.320/.410/.560) and third‑baseman Matt Duffy’s breakout 28‑home‑run power display.

Paul Skenes has become the face of Pittsburgh’s rebuilding effort, and his every start is dissected by fans and statisticians alike. Over the past three seasons, his strikeout totals have climbed from 180 to 210, while his walk rate has hovered near a career‑low 2.5%. Those trends are reinforced by advanced metrics such as xFIP and SIERA, both of which rank him among the top five pitchers in the league. The consistency of his peripheral numbers has sparked debate about whether he could join the exclusive club of back‑to‑back Cy Young winners.

Only six NL pitchers have achieved consecutive Cy Young honors, most recently Clayton Kershaw in 2014‑15. Skenes would become the youngest to repeat since Jacob de Grom (22) in 2018‑19, and the first Pirate to do so in franchise history. His 2025 Cy Young campaign featured a 2.04 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and a historic 0.98 WHIP, cementing his reputation as a generational talent.

Strategic implications for the Pirates

Pittsburgh’s front office, led by President of Baseball Operations Derek Shelton, has built the rotation around Skenes’ elite frame. The club’s scouting department has already identified several high‑upside arms—prospect right‑hander Jaxson Hayes (2024 1st‑round pick) and left‑hander Marco Gonzales (2025 supplemental round)—to complement his rotation. In the off‑season, the Pirates traded for veteran closer Felipe Vázquez, giving Skenes a reliable back‑end when games tighten in the later innings.

Manager Derek Shelton has emphasized a “low‑run, high‑strikeout” philosophy, employing a shift‑light defensive alignment that maximizes Skenes’ ground‑ball tendencies. The team’s defensive runs saved (DRS) rank ninth in the NL, but Shelton believes that a deeper staff will alleviate pressure on the young ace, allowing him to pitch deeper into games without over‑taxing the bullpen.

Contractually, Skenes is under team control through 2029, having signed a five‑year, $110 million extension in the offseason following his 2025 award season. The deal includes a club option for 2030 with a $30 million buyout, signaling Pittsburgh’s willingness to lock the ace into the core of its competitive window that could extend to 2029.

Key Developments

• Paul Skenes finished second in the official NL Cy Young voting.
• Phillies left‑hander Cristopher Sanchez sits atop the poll, holding the No. 1 spot.
• Skenes allowed nine runs over his last two starts, raising his ERA to 3.00.
• His strikeout‑minus‑walk rate of 24.1% ties for the third‑best mark in the league.
• In 2024, Skenes posted a 2.31 ERA and 10.5 K/9, the best rookie season for a Pirates starter since 1997.

What’s next for the Pirates and Skenes?

The club is expected to lock Skenes into a long‑term deal that reflects his award‑caliber trajectory. Front office executives have indicated that a performance‑based extension, with escalators tied to innings pitched and WAR milestones, could be on the table before the September roster deadline. The goal is to secure his services through his prime years while maintaining flexibility for supplemental pieces.

Looking ahead, the Pirates face a pivotal stretch series against the NL West leader Los Angeles Dodgers beginning June 12. Analysts project that a dominant Skenes performance—projected strikeout total of 12, WHIP under 1.00—could swing the series in Pittsburgh’s favor and create a momentum surge. If he repeats his 2025 consistency—averaging 6.5 innings per start with a sub‑2.50 ERA in the second half—the Pirates’ playoff odds climb to 38%, a stark contrast to the 12% baseline at the season’s start.

In the broader league context, the NL is trending toward younger pitchers with higher velocity and spin, a shift that has benefitted Skenes’ skill set. His ability to generate swings‑and‑misses on both fastball and secondary offerings (a cutter averaging 92 mph and a curveball with a 78‑inch break) places him among the top five pitchers in the Statcast “pitches per plate appearance” metric, at 1.23, indicating that hitters are forced to chase more often.

Should the recent hiccup fade before the September stretch, and assuming he stays healthy—a concern given a minor elbow strain in August 2025 that sidelined him for 12 days—Skenes could not only propel the Pirates into a postseason berth but also rewrite the narrative on back‑to‑back Cy Young winners. His blend of durability, elite peripherals, and postseason experience (he logged 7.2 innings of scoreless relief in the 2025 NLDS) makes him a rare combination of talent and poise.