Manny Machado entered the 2026 season with a $30 million salary and a contract that runs through 2033. By May 21 his numbers sit well below career norms, prompting a wave of analysis about whether he can mirror David Ortiz’s late‑career power surge.
Machado, now 37, has posted a WAR under 1.0 this year, a steep drop from his 5‑plus WAR averages. The numbers reveal a sharp decline in both power and on‑base production, feeding a debate about his future role in San Diego.
What the latest sabermetrics say about Machado’s output
Jim Bowden of Sporting News notes that Machado’s wRC+ sits in the low 80s, well under league average. His BABIP of .260 suggests bad luck, but the underlying hard‑hit rate has slipped below 15%, a figure that typically forecasts continued power loss. It is believed that a swing‑mechanics tweak could lift his launch angle and add 10‑15 home runs, echoing Ortiz’s 2013 adjustment.
The Padres’ analytics department released a report on May 15 showing Machado’s barrel percentage at 1.2%, compared with a league‑average of 5.7%. The report states that the veteran’s exit velocity has fallen 2.5 mph since the start of the season, a drop that often signals a lingering injury or age‑related decline.
Contract, age and the financial picture
San Diego Padres hold Machado under contract until age 40, with $210 million guaranteed beyond 2026. If he can recapture his 30‑home‑run form, the deal could become a bargain; if not, the club faces a massive dead‑cap hit. The front office brass has a $45 million luxury‑tax buffer, but Machado’s share of payroll already exceeds 12% of total spend. A recent interview with Padres GM A.J. Preller on MLB.com warned that the team must weigh short‑term performance against long‑term flexibility.
Impact on the Padres lineup
Manny Machado’s left‑handed power protects the right side of the order, especially with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill providing speed and power. If Machado regains form, the Padres could field a lineup that rivals the 2019 NL West champions. Conversely, a continued slump may force San Diego to explore trade options or to lean more heavily on younger talent from their farm system.
Key Developments
- Machado’s 2026 salary of $30 million represents roughly 12% of the Padres’ total payroll.
- Bowden projects a 15‑home‑run increase for Machado if he raises his launch angle, mirroring Ortiz’s 2013 mid‑season tweak.
- Padres’ luxury‑tax buffer sits at $45 million, but Machado’s contract consumes a large portion of that cushion.
- Machado’s BABIP of .260 is well below the league average of .300, suggesting bad luck may be inflating his slump.
- If Machado fails to improve, the Padres could face a $200 million dead‑cap hit after his contract expires.
How did David Ortiz’s performance change after his mid‑season adjustment?
Ortiz raised his launch angle in 2013, boosting his home‑run total from 13 in the first half to 30 in the second, finishing with a career‑high 37 homers.
What is Manny Machado’s WAR this season compared to his career average?
Machado’s 2026 WAR is under 1.0, far below his career average of 5.3 WAR per season, highlighting the depth of his current slump.
How much of the Padres’ payroll is tied up in Machado’s contract?
At $30 million for 2026, Machado accounts for roughly 12% of San Diego’s total payroll, a sizable share given the team’s $45 million luxury‑tax buffer.