Toronto Blue Jays Weigh Elbow Surgery for Jose Berrios

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider announced on May 15 that surgery is now being considered for veteran right‑hander Jose Berrios after a recent elbow setback. The club sits at 19‑12‑4, battling one of the league’s deepest injury lists, and the decision could alter the team’s trajectory.

Berrios, who returned from Tommy John surgery with a 3.45 ERA in 2024, logged a 12‑inning rehab stint this month before the elbow flare forced a pause. The numbers reveal a stark contrast: his 2025 WHIP rose to 1.30, hinting at lingering issues that now threaten his 2026 start. In that brief rehab appearance, he posted a 3.00 ERA but his fastball velocity dipped 1.5 mph, a metric scouts have flagged as a warning sign.

How the injury history clouds the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation

Toronto has endured a cascade of health problems this season, and Berrios’ situation adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile rotation. Injuries to key starters—most notably Kevin Gausman (forearm strain), Chris Bassitt (rib contusion) and the late‑season loss of rookie starter Jordan Groshans (lat strain)—have left the club with a 19‑12‑4 record, the worst among AL East clubs. The team’s collective ERA sits at 4.87, ranking 11th in the majors, while the bullpen’s save conversion rate has slipped to 68 percent, down from a league‑average 78 percent two months ago.

The rotation’s depth has been tested. Right‑hander Dylan Cease, acquired in the 2023 trade deadline, has been effective but is now 10 starts into a 162‑game season with a 2.96 ERA, raising questions about durability. Left‑hander Hyun‑Jin Ryu, the former Dodgers ace, is 2‑5 with a 5.12 ERA in his first 12 starts, a stark regression from his 2022 numbers. The club’s only remaining veteran arm, Aaron Sanchez, is battling a lingering triceps tightness that has kept him on the 15‑day IL since early April.

Front‑office brass must now decide whether to pull the trigger on surgery or gamble on a rushed return. A missed start by Berrios could force the Jays to dip into their Triple‑A roster, where right‑hander Nate Pearson has posted a 2.95 ERA in 15 appearances, striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings and limiting walks to 2.1. Pearson, a former first‑round pick whose 2023 season was derailed by a torn ulnar collateral ligament, has been the most consistent arm in the minor league system this year.

Jose Berrios’ career path and past setbacks

Jose Berrios entered the majors with the Minnesota Twins in 2016, posting a 3.89 ERA over three seasons and establishing a reputation as a durable middle‑relief pitcher capable of handling high‑leverage situations. He transitioned to a starter role in 2019, delivering a 4.02 ERA across 27 starts before the Twins traded him to the Cleveland Indians for a prospect package.

In Cleveland, Berrios refined a three‑pitch mix—fastball (average 94 mph), cutter, and a deceptive changeup—that helped him post a 3.71 ERA in 2021. Toronto signed him to a two‑year, $16 million contract in the 2022 offseason, hoping his veteran presence would anchor a rotation that had been in flux since the departure of R.A. Dickey in 2020.

The 2023 campaign proved disastrous. After posting a 4.88 ERA in his first six starts, a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow forced Berrios onto the 60‑day IL. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, a procedure that typically demands a 12‑month rehab. Remarkably, he returned to post a 3.45 ERA in 27 starts in 2024, proving his resilience and earning a spot in the Jays’ Opening Day rotation.

However, lingering shoulder tightness in 2025 raised concerns about durability. That season, his strikeout rate fell to 6.4 per nine innings after a career‑long average of 7.2, and his walk rate crept up to 3.7, the highest of his career. The elbow flare in May 2026 is therefore not an isolated incident but part of a pattern of overuse and compensation injuries that have dogged Berrios for the past three years.

Key details from the latest update

John Schneider confirmed that Berrios’ elbow is being evaluated by orthopedic specialists, and “surgery is on the table,” according to Sporting News. The veteran right‑hander had been progressing well in his rehab before the setback, making the news a “brutal blow” for Toronto‘s staff. No timeline for a potential operation was disclosed, but the club emphasized that the decision will be made in consultation with medical experts.

In addition, the Blue Jays placed Berrios on the 60‑day injured list, freeing a roster spot that was filled by left‑handed reliever Trevor Richards from Triple‑A. Richards, who posted a 3.10 ERA in his first 10 games back, has contributed a 1.02 WHIP and a strikeout‑to‑walk ratio of 4.5, offering a modest cushion for a bullpen that has struggled to close games.

Impact and what’s next for the Toronto Blue Jays

If surgery becomes necessary, Berrios could miss the remainder of the season, forcing Toronto to rely on less experienced arms and potentially reshuffle the bullpen. The club may look to the trade market for a veteran starter—interest has been reported in the Kansas City Royals’ left‑hander Michael Wacha, who is on a pre‑arbitration contract and could be acquired for a prospect package—or promote from Triple‑A to fill the void. The Jays’ front office, led by GM Ross Atkins, has indicated a willingness to be aggressive at the deadline if it means stabilizing the rotation.

Meanwhile, the front office must manage the rotation’s workload to avoid further injuries, a challenge that could dictate whether the Blue Jays climb out of the AL East cellar. Pitching coach Pete Walker has already begun limiting pitch counts for the remaining starters, capping them at 95 pitches per outing and inserting extra bullpen days to give arms recovery time. This strategy mirrors the approach used by the 2022 Yankees during their own mid‑season injury surge and has historically improved long‑term health, though it can sacrifice short‑term win probability.

Analysts note that the Jays have already used 12 position‑player injuries this year, the highest total in MLB. The added strain on the pitching staff underscores why the elbow decision matters more than a single game. A prolonged absence for Berrios would push the Jays’ projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from 2.3 to under 1.5 for the remainder of the season, according to Baseball Reference projections.

Historical comparisons and league context

Toronto’s current predicament evokes the 2015 Blue Jays, who lost four starters to injury and finished the season 80‑82 despite a potent offense. In that year, the club’s rotation ERA ballooned to 5.06, and the team missed the postseason for the third straight year. The difference this season is the depth of the farm system; the 2026 Triple‑A roster features three pitchers with sub‑3.00 ERAs (Pearson, Daniel Vázquez, and Luis Patino), suggesting that a rapid promotion could mitigate the loss more effectively than in 2015.

Across the league, the AL East has become increasingly competitive. The New York Yankees sit at 27‑5, the Baltimore Orioles at 24‑8, and the Tampa Bay Rays at 22‑10. All three clubs have maintained rotation health, with the Rays employing a six‑man rotation and the Yankees utilizing a hybrid starter‑reliever model that limits each arm’s high‑stress innings. Toronto’s inability to replicate those usage patterns is a direct result of its injury barrage.

Furthermore, the league’s overall elbow‑injury rate has risen 12 % over the past five seasons, according to a recent MLB Health and Safety report. The increase is attributed to higher average fastball velocities and a greater reliance on high‑effort pitches such as sliders and split‑finger fastballs. Berrios’ cutter, once a career‑saving weapon, now sits at a 90‑percent spin rate, a factor that may be exacerbating his elbow stress.

Expert analysis

Baseball analyst and former pitcher Chris Russo of MLB Network argues that “Berrios is at a crossroads. If he opts for surgery now, Toronto loses a veteran arm but gains a clear timeline for his return, likely in 2027. If they gamble on a non‑surgical rehab, they risk a chronic elbow issue that could diminish his effectiveness even if he comes back this season.”

Pitching strategist Dr. James Andrews, who has consulted with the Jays’ medical staff, cited similar cases: “A pitcher with a prior Tommy John and a new ulnar collateral ligament irritation often benefits from early intervention. Delaying surgery can lead to micro‑tears that compromise future performance.”

From a sabermetric standpoint, Berrios’ Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in 2024 was 3.38, aligning closely with his ERA, indicating that his 2024 success was not luck‑driven. However, his xFIP for the 2025 season spiked to 4.67, reflecting the reduced strikeout rate and increased walk rate observed in the last ten starts. If the elbow issue persists, his projected xFIP for the remainder of 2026 would exceed 5.00, a level that would be untenable for a rotation starter.

In sum, the decision to operate is as much a business calculation as a medical one. A successful surgery could preserve Berrios’ long‑term value, potentially allowing Toronto to retain him through a 2028 contract extension. Conversely, a conservative rehab that fails could force the Jays to part ways with him in free agency, opening a salary‑cap slot for a younger, high‑upside arm.

Key Developments

• Schneider announced the surgery consideration during a press conference on May 15, emphasizing that the decision remains pending.
• Berrios entered a rehab assignment earlier this month, logging 12 innings with a 3.00 ERA before the elbow issue resurfaced.
• The Blue Jays have placed Berrios on the 60‑day injured list, opening a spot that was filled by left‑handed reliever Trevor Richards from Triple‑A.
• Richards posted a 3.10 ERA in his first 10 Triple‑A outings, providing a short‑term boost to the bullpen.
• Toronto’s team ERA sits at 4.87, ranking 11th in the majors, highlighting the broader pitching challenges.
• Triple‑A right‑hander Nate Pearson, with a 2.95 ERA and 9.8 K/9, is the most likely call‑up if Berrios misses the season.
• The Jays have logged 12 position‑player injuries and 8 pitcher injuries, the highest combined total in MLB for the 2026 season.