Chicago Cubs’ Edward Cabrera Flashes Nasty Changeup in Spring Training

Chicago Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera showcased one of the most distinctive changeups in baseball during a spring training outing on Thursday, March 5, 2026 — a pitch so disorienting it caused a hitter to flail his own helmet off his head. The moment crystallized what Cubs evaluators have tracked for years: Cabrera carries a five-pitch arsenal headlined by a changeup that operates in a velocity band most pitchers reserve for their fastballs.

Cabrera threw 31 of his 45 pitches for strikes across 2 2/3 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, finishing with two strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed. The outing was brief but pointed, giving the Cubs a live look at a weapon that Marlins fans knew well and that Chicago’s analytics staff has studied closely since acquiring the right-hander.

Breaking down the advanced metrics, the numbers reveal a pattern worth understanding before Opening Day. Cabrera’s changeup is not merely effective — it is structurally unusual, and that structural unusualness is precisely what makes it so difficult to square up.

What Makes Edward Cabrera’s Changeup So Difficult to Hit?

Edward Cabrera’s changeup is elite because it arrives in the 93-95 mph range — a velocity band that blurs the line between off-speed and hard stuff. That speed creates a genuine recognition problem for hitters, who cannot rely on the typical 8-10 mph gap between a pitcher’s fastball and changeup to time their swing. The result is late, helpless contact — or no contact at all.

Per Statcast, Cabrera threw his changeup 25.8% of the time in 2025, a slight dip from three prior seasons in which his changeup usage hovered between 31% and 32%. The reduction in changeup frequency last year did not diminish its effectiveness; it may, in fact, have preserved its surprise value. The Cubs will almost certainly study whether nudging that usage rate back toward the 31-32% range produces better overall results, particularly given how his fastball performed.

The fastball data complicates the picture. Per Statcast, Cabrera allowed a .583 slugging percentage and a .661 expected slugging percentage against his four-seam fastball in 2025. Those are alarming numbers. They suggest that when hitters correctly identify the four-seamer, they do damage — which in turn explains why the changeup functions as the true load-bearing pitch in his repertoire. His sinker and four-seam fastball reside lower in his five-pitch package, with the changeup serving as the primary weapon.

Chicago Cubs Context: Why Cabrera’s Profile Intrigues the Organization

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The Chicago Cubs have monitored Cabrera’s development for years, and the spring training outing against Milwaukee gave the North Siders a first direct look at whether the right-hander’s ceiling translates to their system. Marlins fans spent years watching Cabrera flash this repertoire in Miami; Cubs fans are only now getting acquainted with the full picture.

Tracking this trend over three seasons of Statcast data, Cabrera’s changeup usage from 2022 through 2024 consistently sat in the 31-32% range before dropping to 25.8% in 2025. That shift is meaningful. Whether it was a strategic adjustment, an injury-related alteration, or a response to scouting reports, the Cubs’ pitching staff and front office will want to understand the cause before building a rotation plan around him.

The Brewers, a division rival the Cubs face repeatedly throughout the National League Central schedule, served as the opponent for this particular audition. Facing a legitimate MLB lineup — even in spring — provides more useful data than a controlled bullpen session, and Cabrera’s 31-of-45 pitch strike rate against Milwaukee suggests command was not an issue on this day.

Key Developments from Cabrera’s Spring Outing

• Cabrera’s changeup velocity sits in the 93-95 mph range, making it one of the fastest changeups tracked by Statcast among starting pitchers.
• His four-seam fastball yielded a .661 expected slugging percentage in 2025 per Statcast, identifying it as a pitch the Cubs may look to deploy more selectively.
• Cabrera’s five-pitch mix includes a sinker, four-seam fastball, and changeup as the primary offerings, with heaters ranked lower in the overall pitch hierarchy.
• The changeup usage rate dropped from the 31-32% range across three consecutive seasons to 25.8% in 2025, per Statcast.
• Against Milwaukee in this spring training start, Cabrera recorded two strikeouts and issued one walk across 2 2/3 innings.

What Does Cabrera’s Changeup Mean for the Cubs’ Rotation Strategy?

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The numbers suggest Cabrera’s long-term value to the Chicago Cubs hinges on how effectively the organization can suppress his four-seam fastball usage while maximizing the changeup. Based on available data, the four-seamer is a liability at the highest level, but the changeup is a genuine weapon — and a pitcher who leads with a 93-95 mph off-speed pitch creates a sequencing puzzle that few lineups solve cleanly.

One alternative interpretation of the fastball data deserves acknowledgment: a high expected slugging percentage against the four-seamer could partly reflect sample-size noise or specific game-state contexts in which Cabrera was forced to throw it in hitter-friendly counts. The Cubs’ pitching analysts will need more data across a full regular season before drawing firm conclusions about pitch mix optimization.

Still, the changeup’s reputation preceded Cabrera to Chicago, and the spring training outing against the Brewers did nothing to diminish that reputation. The helmet-flailing moment — a hitter so badly fooled that his own equipment came loose — is the kind of anecdote that follows a pitch through a career. For the Cubs, who are building toward postseason contention in the National League Central, a pitcher with a genuinely elite off-speed offering represents a meaningful addition to their spring training evaluation process. Salary cap implications and rotation depth decisions will follow as the roster takes shape before Opening Day.